Influence of Risk Assessment and Risk Mitigation Strategies on the Performance of National Government Road Construction Projects in Nairobi City County, Kenya
Abstract
Road infrastructure is central to economic productivity, yet many national government road construction projects in Kenya continue to experience schedule delays, cost overruns, and quality non-compliance. This study examined the influence of risk assessment strategies and risk mitigation strategies on the performance of national government road construction projects in Nairobi City County, Kenya. Anchored on Prospect Theory and Agency Theory, the study adopted a descriptive cross-sectional survey design. The target population comprised 120 national government road construction projects in Nairobi City County, and a sample of 92 projects was selected through simple random sampling. Structured questionnaires were administered to project managers, yielding 77 usable responses representing an 83.7% response rate. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, and multiple regression analysis with SPSS version 29. Correlation results established that risk assessment strategies (r = 0.718, p < 0.001) and risk mitigation strategies (r = 0.776, p < 0.001) were both positively and significantly associated with project performance. Multiple regression results confirmed that risk assessment strategies (Beta = 0.251, p = 0.001) and risk mitigation strategies (Beta = 0.344, p < 0.001) each had a statistically significant positive effect on project performance, with risk mitigation strategies emerging as the stronger predictor. The combined model explained 65.8% of the variation in project performance (R² = 0.658). The study concludes that structured implementation of both risk assessment and risk mitigation practices significantly enhances performance outcomes in national government road construction projects. Implementing agencies should institutionalise probability–impact scoring frameworks, strengthen contingency budget allocations, and embed contractual risk controls within procurement governance systems to improve schedule adherence, cost control, and quality compliance.
Keywords: Risk Assessment Strategies, Risk Mitigation Strategies, Project Performance, Road Construction Projects, Nairobi City County, Kenya
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